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Paxton is just the start of primary headaches for Senate Republicans

Ken Paxton’s entry into the U.S. Senate race in Texas is becoming a major headache for Republicans.

Top GOP senators were maneuvering to undercut the Texas attorney general even before he announced his primary campaign this week against four-term Sen. John Cornyn. Others urged President Donald Trump after Paxton got into the race to endorse the incumbent leadership adviser and former chair of the Senate campaign arm with a deep donor base.

“The best thing would have been to keep Paxton out of the race,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), a close Trump ally. He added that at this point he would tell Trump, if the president asked for his advice, to do “whatever is most helpful for John.”

Notably, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) is staying neutral in the matchup between Cornyn and Paxton so far. And two members of the Texas delegation have already backed the challenger.

Paxton is just the start of the party’s primary problems. Republicans are on edge that Trump, if he chooses, could elevate more MAGA-aligned challengers to incumbents in several states, forcing a round of bitterly contested primaries. Senate Republican leaders are working to prevent a Trump-backed primary threat to Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, home to one of the most competitive races next November. And Sen. Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump following his impeachment in 2021’s riot at the Capitol, is facing a challenge from the right.

Republicans are holding out hope that Trump will help them fend off intraparty upsets that would complicate their Senate map next year. But they also know a single utterance from the president would be enough to upend their plans.

Sen. Tim Scott, chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, has said that he is working with Trump to ensure they are on the same page when it comes to protecting incumbents. Scott re-emphasized his support for Cornyn after Paxton jumped into what is expected to be the party’s most expensive primary fight of the cycle, calling him “a leader who delivers on President Trump’s agenda” and an “essential part of the Republican Senate Majority.”

But the behind-the-scenes efforts by GOP leaders to persuade Trump to endorse Cornyn is cementing a well-known reality for Republicans: They need Trump but also know they can’t control him.

The Senate map is heavily tilted toward Republicans in 2026. But they are still eager to avoid what’s been a perennial problem for the party: watching untested candidates win primaries only to cost the party in the general election or force them to spend money on what should have been safe seats. In the 2022 midterms, Trump endorsed candidates like Mehmet Oz, Blake Masters and Herschel Walker who went on to lose hotly contested general elections.

Sen. Steve Daines, last cycle’s chair of the NRSC, went to great lengths to forge a different path, working closely with Trump to handpick candidates with better chances in the general election. He succeeded, helping to deliver the Senate majority to Republicans. But the GOP is playing more defense in 2026, including with incumbents facing new challenges from the right.

“Look, you always have to take primaries seriously, always,” Daines said. “What we tried to do at the NRSC last time is try to minimize that. But you’re always concerned about colleagues in a primary.”

Trump, Daines said, is keeping “a close eye” on Senate races.

Senate Republicans aren’t alone in trying to work Trump to get involved in primaries on their behalf — and in some cases, their efforts are having unintended consequences. Paxton entered the primary sooner than he otherwise would have because he learned Senate Majority Leader John Thune was trying to secure Trump’s endorsement for Cornyn, according to a person close to Paxton who was granted anonymity to speak candidly. Paxton also has allies urging the president to endorse him, the person said.

Cornyn yoked himself to the president during the first two-and-a-half months of his second term and touted his previous work with Trump during his failed bid for majority leader last year. But Paxton has still made clear he will run a campaign accusing Cornyn of being insufficiently loyal to Trump.

Aides to Trump and the Republican National Committee did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

In North Carolina, Tillis has already drawn primary challengers and could face another bid from Michele Morrow, an inflammatory candidate who unsuccessfully ran for the state’s superintendent for public education last fall. Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, has also been floated as a potential challenger – though she recently signed on at Fox News Channel.

Tillis, asked if he had spoken with Trump or his team about an endorsement, said “it’s too early for me to get into those sort of discussions.”

But it’s Cassidy who Trump’s Senate allies are less certain will be able to work himself back into Trump’s good favor. Louisiana State Treasurer John Fleming has already announced a run against him, and more Republican challengers are expected to jump into the fray. And while Cassidy has sided with Trump on major GOP causes this year, including providing a key vote for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to lead Trump’s Health and Human Services Department, some Senate Republicans aren’t sure that is enough to entice the president to his side.

Cramer, a close Trump ally, wasn’t certain that Trump could find his way to help the Louisiana Republican: “I don’t know — impeachment, that’s a tough one.”

Another Trump ally, granted anonymity to speak candidly, predicted there was “no way” the president would remain neutral, much less endorse Cassidy, in the primary. And the normally gregarious Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) declined to comment when asked if he was, or planned to be, in talks with Trump about endorsing or at least staying neutral in Cassidy’s race.

Cassidy was reluctant to discuss the possibility of facing a Trump-backed challenger on Wednesday.

“That’s kind of a silly question,” he said about that prospect. “I’m not worried about that.”

Asked if he had spoken with Trump or his team about an endorsement, he asked: “Where is this coming from?”

A key difference between Cassidy and other potentially endangered incumbents is that his seat in Louisiana is not in play in the general election, so the party’s fate isn’t tied to Cassidy winning his primary.

Cassidy is also facing a new obstacle as he tries to hold onto his seat: Louisiana did away with its unique primary system for congressional races that advances the top two vote-getters to a general election regardless of party (unless one candidate gets over 50 percent of the vote.) That means Cassidy will need to win over a more conservative and Trump-aligned electorate to advance to the general election.

If Trump targets Cassidy, it would open up a public split between Trump and Thune and the Senate GOP’s campaign arm, which backs incumbent senators. Not to mention that any money siphoned away from Republicans during the primary takes away from funding that could be spent in the general election on competitive races.

Asked if he had a similar conversation with Trump and his orbit for Cassidy as Republicans have done for Cornyn, Thune said in a brief interview that Republicans are taking the races “one at a time.”

“Obviously we’re invested in helping our incumbents,” Thune said, adding that he is working with the White House and the Senate GOP campaign arm to “make sure we’re in the best possible shape going into the midterm elections with both our candidates — incumbents, but also some challengers.”

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Two Texas Republicans throw support behind Paxton in brewing Senate fight

Two Texas House Republicans have endorsed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s 2026 Senate bid — breaking with longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn for what’s anticipated to be a heated primary contest.

Rep. Lance Gooden (R-Texas), a staunch ally of President Donald Trump, announced his backing of Paxton in a statement first shared to Fox News on Thursday.

“Attorney General Paxton is the conservative champion we need in the U.S. Senate,” Gooden wrote.

He added that Paxton “will take a sledgehammer to the establishment, secure the border, and fight hard for President Trump’s agenda. Ken Paxton has my complete and total endorsement.”

Gooden’s endorsement comes two days after Paxton, a widely known MAGA firebrand, launched his highly anticipated 2026 Senate campaign to challenge Cornyn.

“It’s definitely time for a change in Texas,” Paxton said. “We have another great U.S. senator in Ted Cruz. And it’s time we have another great senator that will actually stand up and fight for Republican values, fight for the values of the people of Texas, and also support Donald Trump.”

Gooden isn’t the first Texas Republican to throw his support behind Paxton. Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) touted his backing of the attorney general’s campaign bid Wednesday.

“He’s a bulldog, and that’s what we need in the Senate,” Nehls told POLITICO.

Cornyn and Paxton are longtime ideological rivals. Paxton has repeatedly attacked Cornyn for what he views as inadequate embracing of Trump, and Cornyn recently bashed the Trump rabble-rouser over his legal scandals.

Cornyn recently earned the backing of Senate Majority Leader John Thune, who beat Cornyn in last year’s battle to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) as the party leader in the chamber. The NRSC — led by Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) — also said it would support the incumbent.

While both moves were expected, it signals the primary could get incredibly expensive — and that national Republicans could be willing to spend to back the longtime lawmaker.

But the Republican endorsement that will likely hold the most weight is Trump’s. While the president has yet to announce whom he’ll support, Trump and Paxton have long been closely aligned.

Ben Jacobs contributed to this report.

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Trump praises Whitmer in friendly Oval Office meeting

President Donald Trump praised Gretchen Whitmer in a White House meeting on Wednesday, echoing a bipartisan message the Michigan governor delivered during an earlier speech in Washington, D.C.

The meeting was Whitmer’s second sit-down with the president since he took office. She raised the ongoing ice storm in northern Michigan, investments in the Selfridge Air National Guard Base outside of Detroit, invasive fish in the Great Lakes and the hottest topic of the day — tariffs — according to a spokesperson for the governor.

Trump spoke positively of Whitmer’s leadership, and even brought her with him to the Oval Office while he signed a number of unrelated executive orders.

“We’re honored to have Gretchen Whitmer from Michigan, the great State of Michigan, and she’s been, she’s really done an excellent job, a very good person,” Trump said.

Whitmer’s spokesperson said she was “surprised she was brought into the Oval Office” for Trump’s press conference “without any notice.”

Whitmer has emerged as one of the key Democratic contenders to run for president in 2028. Even though the governor insists she is not setting herself up for the White House, Whitmer will come up on her term limit in 2026 and has successfully rallied voters in a state that Trump has carried twice.

Among the directives Trump signed, he opened investigations into two of his first-term aides: former Department of Homeland Secretary official Miles Taylor and former Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency Director Chris Krebs. The president accused Taylor of fraud, Krebs of treason, then stripped both their security clearances, repeating false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.

“Her presence is not an endorsement of the actions taken or statements made at that event,” Whitmer’s spokesperson said.

Whitmer’s approach with Trump on Wednesday contrasted the staunch criticism that has united much of the Democratic Party’s platform, specifically around tariffs. Other Democratic governors that have been floated as 2028 hopefuls, like Colorado Gov. Jared Polis or Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, have denounced the tariffs as a tax on average American families.

Whitmer struck a different tone in her speech, emphasizing their common ground related to building up manufacturing jobs in Michigan.

“I understand the motivation behind the tariffs, and here’s where President Trump and I do agree. We do need to make more stuff in America,” Whitmer said. “I’m not against tariffs outright, but they are a blunt tool. You can’t just bust out the tariff hammer to swing at every problem without a clearly defined end goal.”

She pushed for tariff exemptions for the auto and energy industries, which are crucial to Michigan’s economy. Trump’s 90-day pause on tariffs will not include those levied on auto imports.

The conciliatory relationship is a departure from Trump’s first term, where he and Whitmer repeatedly butted heads — especially on the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, when Trump called her inept. He also referred to her as “the woman from Michigan,” which Whitmer reclaimed in a post on X.

As for Trump’s second term, Whitmer signaled that she’s open to working with the president to help her state.

“If you’re not at the table, you’re on the menu,” the governor told journalist Gretchen Carlson at an event on Wednesday.

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Andy Beshear on how Dems can hammer Trump over tariffs

For months, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear warned that the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs stands to harm his state’s economy, including its bourbon, auto and aerospace industries. Now that Trump is ratcheting them up, the Democratic governor said the impacts will be “devastating” not just for the Bluegrass state, but for the entire country.

In an interview with POLITICO on Monday, Beshear, a potential 2028 presidential contender, said there isn’t much Democratic governors can do when it comes to international trade, even as another potential presidential candidate, California Gov. Gavin Newsom, pressed trading partners to spare California-made products from retaliatory measures.

Instead, Beshear argued Democrats’ best recourse is to wage a public information campaign against Trump’s trade agenda, highlighting how the president was elected on a promise to lower costs but instead may make life more expensive for Americans. Democrats need to hammer the point that “he and he alone is making this decision, and he’s out there owning it,” Beshear said.

That recommendation comes as Beshear works to raise his own national profile, with frequent appearances on cable news and a podcast launching on Tuesday.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

About a month ago, you said that you were in touch with Canadian officials urging them to pull back on their tariffs on liquor, mainly to protect Kentucky bourbon. What’s the latest in those conversations?

Well, as a governor, you can have general conversations with leaders in other countries, but you can’t engage in any type of tariff talks. Tariffs are entirely federal, meaning the impact that’s happening on my state, the impact that’s happening on the US economy, is due to one person and one person alone, and that’s Donald Trump. The people in my state who voted for him didn’t vote to have the prices of everything that they need go up. Most of them voted thinking that he’d help bring prices down …

I think the law is very clear that tariffs are federal policy, but I also think that that just makes it that much clearer that there’s no way around the pain that Donald Trump is causing. When he engages in these actions that harm Americans, so many in the media or others say, ‘Well, what are you going to do to make sure it doesn’t harm the people of the United States.’

When the president makes a mistake this significant, when he does something that every single economist says will raise prices, that president typically has the authority to do it, but he should also take the blame for it.

Tell us more about your own trade vision. Kentucky is one of those states that has had communities gutted over the past few decades. Do you support Trump’s long term goal, which is to revitalize those lost industries?

Well, Kentucky is booming. We’ve had three of our best five years for economic development … We have brought in a record over the last five years for private sector investment, created a record number of new jobs, have the best three year average for wages, broke our export record twice, and it looks like we’ll break our tourism record three years in a row. So our economy was growing … What we are seeing is a lot of that momentum directly impacted by President Trump’s very different approach.

Look at Kentucky’s economy: Our biggest foreign direct investor is Japan, and the president has launched a very aggressive tariff on Japan. I mean, the biggest Toyota plant in the world anywhere is in Georgetown, Kentucky, and so to act like our economy isn’t global and there aren’t repercussions on the ground, that there aren’t manufacturing jobs that are already supported by foreign direct investors, that’s just not reality.

Trade is a lot more complicated than this president is acting like it is. Tariffs used surgically can be really important. China is trying to dump steel on the United States, so a targeted steel tariff makes sense. China is trying to dump completed EVs on markets throughout Europe. In the United States, targeted tariffs make sense there … But these across-the-board tariffs, again, I think every economist says are unwise and are not going to lead to the type of investments that the president is talking about.

Regarding the auto tariffs, what impact are you expecting to see on the Toyota manufacturing plant in Georgetown, and will it help or hurt? Because, presumably, it will increase production there.

Here’s the thing, if we want more parts made in the United States, that takes years of investment. I mean, a major manufacturing facility will take anywhere from two to five or six years to build. So if the idea is we will have a very aggressive tariff that will try to force that investment, well, that’s two to five years of pain on the consumer. There are different ways to encourage U.S. investment.

I believe that Donald Trump is only president because he convinced the last group of movable voters that he was focused on prices and the economy and that his opponent was distracted by other issues. Now he’s telling those same consumers he doesn’t care about them. He’s willing to let them go through pain, and his billionaire buddies are saying the same.

Your home-state senators are among the few in the GOP so far speaking out against the tariffs. With the stock market falling and Trump doubling down today on tariffs against China, do you predict this will become the breaking point for Republican support of Trump?

It should be the breaking point because it’s impacting all American families, Democrat, Republican, independent. Prices are going up and life is getting harder for American families solely because of this decision by the president. And like you said, when this Democratic governor and two Republican U.S. senators all say something is a bad idea, in this hyper partisan world, it’s because it is a bad idea.

What leverage do Democratic governors have on this front? I know you said earlier, there are federal laws limiting backchanneling, but what options are on the table for them to push back in any meaningful way?

It’s important for all of us to speak up and speak out. We are very close to our constituents. We are out in our communities every day, talking with the folks that live in our states. At the end of the day, it’s going to need to be more than just our voices. It’s going to need to be everybody who goes to the supermarket that sees their grocery tab going up, you know, X percent needs to take a picture or video of it, needs to post it and call it the Trump tax.

That couple that’s trying to buy a home for the first time where they were going to be able to afford it, and now it’s going up significantly, and they’re not going to be able to get that first house needs to tell their story. When somebody’s passing a gas station, which is on every corner with the prices going up, that needs to get out there too. What it’s going to take is the voice and the pressure of the people of the United States. And I think we see that’s growing.

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John James launches bid for Michigan governor

Republican Rep. John James on Monday launched a bid for Michigan governor, forgoing a re-election campaign to his House seat in a swing district.

The two-term representative and ally of President Donald Trump said in his announcement on social media that he felt compelled to run because Michigan is “being held back by the lack of strong, competent leadership.”

“For the past seven years, Michigan has been dominated by radical, out-of-touch policies that have hurt our families, our communities, and our economy,” James  said on X, and highlighted his close relationship with Trump. “It’s time to get Michigan’s government out of fantasyland and back to commonsense.”

James, who — if he wins — would become the state’s first Black governor, enters the primary race with widespread name recognition among Michigan’s Republican electorate. A survey conducted in January by Harbor Public Affairs found James held a commanding lead among possible Republican candidates at more than 40 percent support, with 35 percent undecided.

In addition to stumping with Trump multiple times during the president’s campaign stops in Michigan last year, James twice secured the GOP nomination for Senate, in 2018 and again in 2020, only to come up short against Democrats in both general elections. He first lost to former Sen. Debbie Stabenow, who has since retired, and then fell to Gary Peters.

Peters announced in January that he would not seek reelection in 2026. That move set off what is expected to be a crowded race on both sides of the aisle in a highly competitive state.

Trump has not publicly weighed in on the race.

Michigan Democrats were quick to pounce on James’ gubernatorial bid, pillorying him as a “failing” candidate who is too scared to face constituents at town halls.

“John James has spent his career failing in statewide elections and failing to show up for his own district, so why would we trust him to show up for Michiganders as governor?” Curtis Hertel Jr., chair of the Michigan Democratic Party, said in a statement. “At a time when Donald Trump is tanking our economy, Michigan needs a leader who won’t just fight for billionaires, but will fight for everyone – John James is not that man.”

Other Republicans vying for the gubernatorial post include Michigan Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt, who announced his campaign in January. Former state Attorney General Mike Cox has formed a candidate committee, but has not formally launched his candidacy. Michigan’s 2022 Republican gubernatorial nominee, Tudor Dixon, is also considering another run next year.

There’s a crowded field on the Democratic side as well, with Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson formally in the race.

And Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, after being affiliated with the Democratic Party for much of his public career, launched a gubernatorial run as an independent late last year.

James, the only Black elected official in Michigan’s congressional delegation — whose district includes southern Macomb County as well as parts of Rochester Hills and Oakland County — is likely to be a key battleground next year. Democrat Christina Hines, a former special victims’ prosecutor, launched her bid earlier Monday for James’ congressional seat.

James’ first House race was one of the closest in the 2022 midterms, with James defeating his Democratic opponent, Carl Marlinga, by 1,601 votes. He won reelection this past year, in a rematch with Marlinga, by more than 26,000 votes.

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Democrats put 7-figure investment behind their Musk-focused playbook in Virginia

Democrats are making Elon Musk their top political target in Virginia, hammering the tech billionaire in a new campaign blitz in the systems’ off year elections.

The message channels the anti-Musk playbook Democrats used successfully in Wisconsin last week, where the Democratic-aligned candidate defeated Musk’s choice for the state Supreme course by a nearly 10 percentage point margin.

Building on their victory in Wisconsin, the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is announcing a seven-figure investment in Virginia House of Delegates races, first obtained by POLITICO. The DLCC also rolled out its initial list of “spotlight candidates,” a group of four Democrats in closely divided districts who will now get increased fundraising and visibility from the national group.

Democrats believe they have an even stronger argument against President Donald Trump and Musk’s government-slicing Department of Government Efficiency in Virginia, where the state economy depends heavily on the business of Washington, D.C. and thousands of federal workers are facing layoffs.

“This is where DOGE is on display,” said DLCC President Heather Williams. “Virginia is sort of an epicenter for the DOGE destruction and its impact on workers and communities.”

The state has historically been a strong bellwether for the midterms, and Democrats believe that the map for them has significantly widened less than three months into Trump’s second term — a reflection of how theparty views battlegrounds across the country in the days after Musk’s involvement with the Wisconsin race backfired for the GOP.

Democratic campaign leaders now see deep-red Virginia districts that Trump won by double digits as within reach. Democrats say recruitment has exploded in the last several weeks, with candidates filing in a record 97 out of 100 districts.

The investment builds on $350,000 the DLCC has already given to the Virginia House Democratic Caucus, which has been running anti-Musk ads since late February and intends to keep targeting Republican candidates for supporting the Trump administration. The caucus has spent five figures on negative ads spotlighting the tech billionaire in twelve districts with GOP incumbents – and plans to ratchet them up as the election approaches.

“Between now and November, there will be lots of ads featuring Musk as he takes a chainsaw to our economy and our democracy, and the Republicans who are too terrified to stand up to him and Trump” said state Del. Dan Helmer, the Democratic campaign chair for the Virginia House of Delegates.

Musk, who Trump has said will step away from his role as a special government employee in the coming months, has indicated he intends to invest heavily to promote Republicans in the Virginia and New Jersey elections, along with the midterms, and the party may have a hard time turning it down.

“If somebody came up to me with a ten million check from Elon Musk, I would be very, very hard pressed to say no,” said one veteran Virginia Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak freely. “Toxic money can buy a lot of TV ads.”

Democrats hold a razor-thin one-seat majority in the state House. They hope to build on that majority and deliver the party a trifecta by winning back the governorship, with presumptive Democratic nominee Abigail Spanberger facing likely GOP contender Winsome Earle-Sears. The gubernatorial matchup is expected to be close, and the fight for state House control could be another nail-biter: Democrats returned to power in 2023 thanks to just 975 votes.

But Virginia Democrats are taking a spree of special election wins – including in January, when a pair of Democrats outperformed in Northern Virginia – as a sign that voters across the political spectrum disagree with the direction of the country under Trump. Democratic campaigns intend to make Musk and the axe he has taken to government jobs central to their argument against the Trump administration.They plan to link what they are calling an agenda of chaos and carelessness toward the middle class to Virginia Republicans.

“The MAGA brand is a dying brand, but they just don’t know it yet,” said House Speaker Don Scott, a Democrat. “And so we’re going to help send that message in Virginia.”

Democrats have set their sights on ousting vulnerable Republicans in the suburbs of Northern Virginia to Hampton Roads to rural areas around Blacksburg. “We see all as part of the map now, as the impact of Musk’s evisceration of the federal government workforce becomes clear,”

In one mostly rural district encompassing Petersburg, Democratic candidate Kimberly Pope Adams is facing off against Republican incumbent Kim Taylor for the second time since losing to her in 2023 by just 53 votes. Adams said that in her conversations with both Democratic and Republicans, those voters are worried about potential cuts to Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare – and many are unhappy about Musk’s influence over the federal government.

“I’m hearing anger because people didn’t vote for Elon Musk yet he seems to have such decision making power, and it’s really upsetting to the voters in my district,” Adams said.

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Ossoff raises record-breaking $11M for Senate reelect

Facing a tough reelection in battleground Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised $11 million in the first quarter of 2025, according to his campaign, which shared the totals first with POLITICO.

Ossoff’s campaign said the haul is the most ever raised by an incumbent in the first quarter of an off-year. POLITICO was unable to identify any Senate campaign that had raised more in an equivalent quarter.

“I’m grateful to the hundreds of thousands of record-shattering supporters who have already joined what will be the biggest and most relentless turnout effort in Georgia history,” the 38-year-old first-term senator said in a statement.

According to the campaign, Ossoff’s average donation during the quarter was $32, coming from 260,000 individual donors and over 155,000 first-time donors. Donations came in from 156 of the state’s 159 counties.

The early fundraising haul is a show of force that could serve to keep some potential GOP challengers on the sideline, though the $11 million is certain to be only a drop in the bucket of the expected overall spending. Georgia’s 2022 Senate race won by Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock saw more than $515 million spent by campaigns and outside groups, according to OpenSecrets.

The Republican nomination in the Peach State will hang on the decision of Gov. Brian Kemp, who remains undecided. A number of other Republicans have expressed interest in the race but have stipulated that they would only run if Kemp does not.

Ossoff is among only a handful of vulnerable Democratic incumbents seeking reelection, with New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen and Michigan’s Gary Peters deciding not to run. Ossoff is already campaigning, hosting an Atlanta rally in late March featuring Warnock.

Georgia’s 2022 Senate race was the most expensive of the cycle, and in four races from 2020 to 2022, $1.4 billion was poured into the state by campaigns, super PACs and other outside groups, per a New York Times analysis.

President Donald Trump carried the state by roughly two points in November, and Republicans already view the state as a top priority in the midterms.

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Democrat Christina Hines launches a congressional bid in Detroit suburbs

Democrat Christina Hines kicked off a bid for Congress, landing Democrats a competitive recruit in a purple district in the Detroit suburbs.

“We need people in Washington that we can trust, and I spent my whole life trying to fight for others and to fight for my community, and I’m hoping that I can be a trustworthy person in Congress,” said Hines, a former special victims prosecutor.

She’d been inspired to run after seeing the news that President Donald Trump issued an executive order to wind down the Department of Education.

“My husband and I looked at each other like, ‘yeah, this is not a time to wait. This is not a time to be comfortable,’“ she recalled. “We need a fighter in Congress. And I’ve spent my whole career fighting for people, and I need to step up. We need a fighter here in Michigan’s tent.”

The district, which includes parts of the northern Detroit suburbs in Oakland and Macomb counties, has trended toward Republicans in recent years. Still, Democrats believe this district could be flippable with incumbent Rep. John James (R-Mich.) potentially vacating it for a gubernatorial bid next year to replace term-limited Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. James won the seat in 2022 by half a percentage point and by a handier margin in 2024.

Notably, she’s running with the endorsement of former judge and attorney Carl Marlinga, who’s run against James the past two cycles. He’d originally made moves toward a bid this cycle, sparking private concerns among some Democrats that his past baggage could tank their chances in the district.

But he’s not running this time and gave his backing to her campaign in a statement: “Christina is the new generational leader we need in Washington to give our country a fresh start. She is a fighter who knows every corner of Macomb and the people who live here.”

Hines could claim a centrist lane and said, “I’m not particularly far on either side of the spectrum.” She she’d been in touch with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee about running and was “not expecting a very contested primary.”

Still, she’s not the only Democrat running. Army veteran Alex Hawkins has already launched a campaign, and former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), who’d represented parts of the district before redistricting, has flirted with a comeback bid for the seat or other elected offices in Michigan.

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Democrats look to push into GOP turf with buzzy candidate recruits for the midterms

Democrats are getting ready to push deeper into Republican-held turf next November.

Emboldened by the special elections last Tuesday, the GOP’s adversaries are sensing opportunity. Three buzzy Senate candidates announced bids this week — the same week that Democratic turnout powered them to a decisive win in the swing state of Wisconsin and two long-shot Democrats overperformed in a pair of deep-red Florida districts. Now, party recruiters are reporting an uptick in interest from candidates in tough-to-win territory.

“This puts a lot more on the field. That puts Democrats on offense. That is us saying — if you’re in a Trump plus-15 district, we’re playing there,” said Rep. Morgan McGarvey (D-Ky.), a co-chair tasked with recruitment for the party campaign arm. “We’re seeing right now a lot of interest from people all over the country in stepping up for their country to run for office.”

In Iowa, two state lawmakers are considering runs against Rep. Zach Nunn in a district sure to be impacted by tariffs. Two prospective candidates in Pennsylvania and Michigan lost or left jobs thanks to the Trump administration, giving them a powerful story on the campaign trail. A pair of former representatives are considering comeback bids for battleground districts in the Rust Belt.

And Democrats think at least two districts in Virginia, held by GOP Reps. Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans, are increasingly in play thanks to backlash to Elon Musk’s government cost-cutting frenzy — both have significant military populations. A possible top recruit is emerging: Pamela Northam, the former first lady of Virginia, has been approached to run for Kiggans’ seat in the Hampton Roads area, according to two people familiar with those efforts, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations.

All this comes amid a punishing week for Republicans that saw the stock market crater after President Donald Trump rolled out tariffs and as his officials continue to face tough questions on the “Signalgate” debacle. Democrats are sensing an opening, and hoping to extend the momentum by recruiting candidates who might be newly energized to run.

“People are upset. If you can channel that, use it for the right energy, run a strong campaign, get out there to the people — I think you can win here in Iowa,” said J.D. Scholten, a Democrat who had been leaning against challenging Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) until Tuesday’s elections. Now, he said, he’s 50-50 on another run in a state where a Democrat hasn’t held a Senate seat since 2015.

House Democratic operatives have also reported an increasing openness from prospective Midwest candidates in Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin over the past few weeks. And the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee notes that based on Tuesday’s margins in Florida there are roughly 40 additional offensive targets that House Democrats could go after in the midterms.

House Majority PAC, Democrats’ top outside group focused on congressional races, reported “a tremendous amount of interest and enthusiasm from potential candidates across the country” in the days leading up to and after Tuesday.

“People have been receptive in the last 48 hours,” said one House Democratic recruiter, who has spoken to candidates in seats as red as R+7 since the special elections.

Meanwhile, previously dejected Democrats are starting to think seriously about mounting campaigns to win the handful of seats required to recapture the House majority.

Among them are former Rep. Andy Levin (D-Mich.), who is weighing a bid for elected office, possibly for the seat currently held by Republican Rep. John James, and Matt Cartwright, another former Democratic House member who is deciding whether to run again for his swing district in northeastern Pennsylvania.

Cartwright called Wisconsin’s election results “very heartening” and said House Republicans made a grave political error when they voted for a budget blueprint that Democrats argue laid the groundwork for cuts to Medicaid. His former opponent, Rep. Rob Bresnahan, was one of them. Cartwright said 200,000 people in his old district depend on the program.

At least two possible candidates have first-hand experience with the upheaval caused by the Trump administration.

Ryan Crosswell, a former federal prosecutor who stepped down after the Department of Justice moved to drop charges against New York Mayor Eric Adams, is considering running against freshman Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in Pennsylvania, according to a person familiar with his thinking. Crosswell declined to comment.

Andrew Lennox, a veteran who briefly lost his job at Veterans Affairs’ hospital in Ann Arbor, thanks to Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency, is mulling a run for GOP Rep. Tom Barrett’s seat in Michigan. Lennox, a guest of Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) at Trump’s address to Congress, said the elections on Tuesday and Sen. Cory Booker’s record-breaking speech left him inspired.

“People actually beat billionaires,” he said. “Seeing that happen, that was a breath of fresh air. And maybe there is some hope out there that this isn’t over.”

State Sen. Sarah Anthony is another potential candidate to take on Barrett. And in Des Moines, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott, an ordained minister, and state Rep. Jennifer Konfrst are both considering runs against Nunn, according to two people familiar with their thinking.

Bob Harvie, a county commissioner in the Philadelphia suburbs, launched a bid against Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) this week after having conversations with the DCCC, according to a person familiar with the communications.

And while Susan Wild, a former Democratic House member who represented a swing district in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, told POLITICO she is not running in 2026, she is working hard “to make sure we have a really solid Democratic nominee” for her old seat.

“It’s got to make people more interested,” she said of this week’s election results, adding that Trump’s tariffs and other factors are also making the political environment more favorable to Democrats. “People who are contemplating running are saying, ‘You know, I think even these tough districts we could flip.’”

However, she cautioned Democrats not to overreach. She said Republican-plus-10 districts are difficult, and the party shouldn’t pursue them except in special cases.

“If they get ahead of themselves, if they get cocky about this, then the frontliners are gonna be really hurting,” she said, referring to the party’s vulnerable House incumbents.

In New Jersey, for example, Democrats would love to oust Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a former Democrat who switched his affiliation in 2019, but not at the expense of easier targets.

Michael Suleiman, chair of the Atlantic County Democrats, acknowledged that the district “could be in play if we had a strong candidate.” But he cautioned that the top two priorities for New Jersey Democrats in 2026 are to protect freshman Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou and oust GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr., both sitting in districts that Trump won by a little more than 1 percentage point. By contrast, he carried Van Drew’s district by nearly 13 percentage points.

And Democrats are still sizing up the impact of a shift among minority voters toward Trump in the 2024 election. Latino-heavy districts in particular moved to the right at the presidential level even as their voters picked Democratic congressional candidates last fall. Democrats are betting that shift was Trump-centric, but the GOP believes they will make even more inroads with Latinos down-ballot.

“Democrats are flailing with no vision, no leader, no message. This is just the latest Hail Mary from a party in freefall,” said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the House GOP campaign arm. “While they chase fantasies, we’ll keep exposing them for being out of touch and crush them again in 2026.”

But Democrats involved in flipping the House in the 2018 wave recalled that strong candidates in tough-to-win seats were a crucial part of their recipe for success. Formidable Democratic nominees like Kendra Horn in Oklahoma, Joe Cunningham in South Carolina and Ben McAdams in Utah were able to parlay a favorable political environment into wins in deep-red districts.

Veterans of that cycle said it pays dividends to recruit in longshot seats.

“I’d go as deep as R-plus-10, at least,” said Meredith Kelly, the top spokesperson for the DCCC during the 2018 cycle. “Put the surfboards in the water, you never know what’s going to come.”

Madison Fernandez and Elena Schneider contributed to this report.

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The nation’s cartoonists on the week in politics

Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here’s an offering of the best of this week’s crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.

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