Many Democrats are betting on a blue wave next year to help them regain favor with disenchanted voters and claw back some control in Washington \u2014 but several key indicators are turning into warning signs instead.<\/p>\n
Recent polling shows Democrats are still struggling to regain their footing with voters who lurched right in 2024, and that\u2019s compounded by growing gaps in fundraising, an increasing number of messy primaries and a congressional map that Republicans are redrawing to make it harder for Democrats to win.<\/p>\n
\u201cI don\u2019t see a blue wave,\u201d said Matt Taglia, the senior director of Emerson College polling, a non-partisan group that routinely administers political opinion surveys. \u201cIt\u2019s more like a blue trickle.\u201d<\/p>\n
Still, as Democrats go on offense<\/a> during the August recess, they are trying to juice up a blue wave by stoking backlash to the policies<\/a> enacted under a Republican trifecta. They’ve tried rolling out a variety of playbooks already, on President Donald Trump\u2019s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, tariffs and economic woes that could come from the megabill.<\/p>\n Democrats are placing so much stock in a wave midterm election partly because it could help them stymie Republicans in Congress and chart a path into the 2028 presidential election and beyond. Some Democrats acknowledge the party doesn\u2019t yet have the momentum it needs to gin up a blue wave, but they say they\u2019re confident it\u2019ll come by early 2026.<\/p>\n \u201cThere’s a lot of angst about the Democratic Party writ large. I totally hear that. But you have evidence of people on the Democratic side pretty motivated to come out and vote,\u201d said Neera Tanden, the president and CEO of the left-leaning think tank Center for American Progress who served as former President Joe Biden\u2019s domestic policy advisor. \u201cI think the midterm election will be about who is angrier.\u201d<\/p>\n And Courtney Rice, a spokesperson for the party\u2019s House campaign arm, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, emphasized the resolve to create a wave election next year: \u201cIt\u2019s clear that Democrats are on a path back to the House majority come 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n Republicans reject the idea that Democrats can overcome their hurdles by 2026.<\/p>\n \u201cVulnerable House Democrats are sitting on our turf,\u201d said Mike Marinella, a spokesperson for the National Republican Congressional Committee. \u201cThey\u2019re getting blown out of the water in the money race, they\u2019re eating their own in messy primaries, the Democrat Party\u2019s approval ratings are at rock bottom, they are consistently on the wrong side of wildly popular issues, and they\u2019ve completely lost touch with hardworking Americans.\u201d<\/p>\n Here\u2019s a look at the headwinds that could put the legitimacy of the blue wave in question.<\/p>\n Even as Trump’s approval has tanked, about 63 percent of voters hold negative views of Democrats<\/a>, marking a three-decade nadir for the party, according to a recent poll released by The Wall Street Journal. And Democrats\u2019 projected wins are modest: Separate polls conducted by Emerson College<\/a>and YouGov<\/a>show that in a generic matchup between the parties, they are ahead by just 2 percentage points.<\/p>\n That suggests Democrats are having trouble capitalizing on what they say is Republicans\u2019 shaky handling of economic and foreign policy.<\/p>\n Around this time in 2017 \u2014 ahead of Democrats\u2019 monster 2018 blue wave year in which they gained a net of 41 House seats \u2014 Democrats were up about 6 percentage points in the generic ballot, noted Taglia, the Emerson pollster.<\/p>\n That doesn\u2019t mean the blue wave dream is dead. Election Day is still 15 months away, and that same Emerson poll shows about a quarter of voters are currently undecided on the congressional ballot. Americans could start feeling the impacts of the megabill and other marquee policies like mass deportations well into campaign season, which could offer Democrats an opportunity to win back some voters who swung right in 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cIf we get to March of next year and we still see Democrats at 2 or 3 points up in the generic ballot, that is alarm bells for them,\u201d Taglia said. \u201cThey\u2019re going to want to be at least 4 points up. For their ideal result, probably more like 6 points \u2026 Then you\u2019re starting to look a little bit like a blue wave.\u201d<\/p>\n Texas Republicans unveiled a new congressional map<\/a> Wednesday that, if enacted, would carve out five additional red-leaning districts. Those efforts, done at the behest of Trump, could throw a monkeywrench in Democrats\u2019 plans to reclaim the House.<\/p>\n Now Democrats are trying to reforge relationships with voters in four newly created majority-Hispanic districts in Texas<\/a> who swung right in 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cDonald Trump and Texas Republicans are playing a dangerous game, and we’re ready to defeat now-vulnerable Republicans next November,\u201d said CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for House Majority PAC, Democrats\u2019 top House super PAC. \u201cWe\u2019re bringing the full weight of our operation to the Lone Star State to make this backroom deal backfire and take back the House in 2026.\u201d<\/p>\n Republicans also hope to squeeze out a few more red districts in other states. Control of the House hinges on razor-thin majorities, and those redistricting efforts alone could significantly stymie Democrats\u2019 ability to retake the chamber.<\/p>\n Some Democratic governors, including California\u2019s Gavin Newsom and New York\u2019s Kathy Hochul, have threatened retaliatory gerrymandering crusades ahead of midterms, though it\u2019s unclear how feasible these efforts will be<\/a> because those states have ceded redistricting power to independent commissions, unlike Texas. Those states would have to rely on voter referenda or court orders to claw back this power, and they only have until early 2026 to pull it off.<\/p>\n Tanden says she\u2019s optimistic California can counter Texas\u2019s gerrymandering by 2026. \u201cIf someone was like, \u2018while Trump is president we\u2019re going to get rid of the commission,\u2019 people would be down with that.\u201d<\/p>\n House Democrats are facing crowded primaries across the map.<\/p>\n Some in the party worry that months of fighting over intraparty tactics or thorny issues like Israel’s war in Gaza could splinter voters and drain resources<\/a> that could be used in the general election.<\/p>\n Democratic infighting over the idea of challenging incumbents has roiled the Democratic National Committee, where former Vice Chair David Hogg lost his position amid consternation over his plan to primary “asleep at the wheel” Democrats.<\/p>\n Democratic leaders have begun to worry that contentious primaries could derail the party\u2019s path to retake the House, and House Majority PAC has threatened to intervene in primaries if it sees it as necessary to reclaim the House.<\/p>\n Republicans, meanwhile, have tried to clear their fields. Trump asked a number of ambitious Republicans to stand down last month<\/a> rather than risk months of infighting, and Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he\u2019s prepared to intervene in primaries<\/a> that could produce nominees who would likely lose in November.<\/p>\n But Democratic strategists who spoke with POLITICO insist these races can also energize their voting base ahead of general elections against Republicans.<\/p>\n Julian Mulvey, a Democratic media consultant, said the busy primaries could help Democrats sharpen their knives before the general election. \u201cYou may think that you\u2019re saving energy, resources, but if you\u2019re not putting forward your best fighters and they\u2019re not able to sharpen up their attacks, sharpen up their defenses, you\u2019re not actually helping Democrats,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n Others say Democratic primaries this cycle aren\u2019t shaping up to be the kind of ideological clashes that can leave voters feeling burned heading into the general election. There aren\u2019t many candidates who stand far from their median voters and would put the party at risk of losing a seat, said Ian Russell, a Democratic strategist: \u201cIt means you don\u2019t have a bunch of wounds that need to be healed in the party.\u201d<\/p>\n Republicans have generally raised more money<\/a> than Democrats this year, particularly in the House battlegrounds.<\/p>\n In campaign finance reports filed Thursday, Congressional Leadership Fund, the top House GOP super PAC, revealed it had raised over $32.7 million<\/a>in the first six months of the year \u2014 about $11.5 million more than its Democratic rival<\/a>, House Majority PAC.<\/p>\n It\u2019s a reflection of the shaky relationship between Democrats and donors who have become rancorous over infighting among party leadership and discordant messaging. And it\u2019s turned the fundraising narrative upside-down: House Democrats have usually crushed Republicans in the money race because of strong online fundraising.<\/p>\n Democrats insist they can catch up by early next year because the GOP front-loaded fundraising through joint fundraising committees that pool funds for dozens of members. Because those groups tend to rely on large national donors, that rate of fundraising may be less sustainable for individual candidates.<\/p>\n For DCCC-targeted House Republicans, about 30 percent of fundraising in the first half of the year came through joint fundraising committees, compared to just four percent for NRCC-targeted House Democrats, according to a POLITICO analysis.<\/p>\nThe polls don’t yet look good for Democrats<\/h4>\n
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Redistricting could bite into Democrats’ opportunities<\/h4>\n
Democrats are facing down messy primaries<\/h4>\n
Democratic fundraising is still lackluster<\/h4>\n