{"id":120867,"date":"2025-11-11T07:42:16","date_gmt":"2025-11-11T15:42:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/marinresists.com\/?p=120867"},"modified":"2025-11-11T07:50:06","modified_gmt":"2025-11-11T15:50:06","slug":"trump-nearly-won-latino-voters-last-year-democrats-just-won-many-of-them-back","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/marinresists.com\/?p=120867","title":{"rendered":"Trump nearly won Latino voters last year. Democrats just won many of them back."},"content":{"rendered":"

Latino voters, who swung toward President Donald Trump in 2024, boomeranged back to Democrats last week, signaling the fraying of his coalition less than one year into his second term.<\/p>\n

Few places across the country epitomize that swing like New Jersey\u2019s Passaic County<\/a>, a densely populated, geographically diverse region where Latinos comprise a plurality. Voters there supported Trump by a narrow margin in 2024, only to back Democratic Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill by double-digits last week. Union City, which is the most Latino city in the state, swung 47 points toward Democrats. And Sherrill seized the Trump-supporting 9th Congressional District, home to a large Latino population, by around 19 points.<\/p>\n

In Virginia, the other state with a gubernatorial contest last week, the two most heavily Latino cities swung toward Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger by more than 15 points each.<\/p>\n

And in California, support for a Democratic-backed ballot measure exceeded Kamala Harris\u2019 share by roughly 12 points in Imperial County, where Latino residents make up 77 percent of the population. That marks the biggest swing of any county in the state.<\/p>\n

Just one year after Trump soared to victory with 48 percent of the Latino vote nationally, these results demonstrate that Republicans have yet to cement them into their coalition. Democrats, feeling emboldened after an epic shellacking last year, have been predicting Latinos would turn on the GOP out of dissatisfaction with Trump\u2019s handling of the economy.<\/p>\n

Not unlike Trump in 2024, Democrats were able to capitalize on those cost-of-living concerns to lure voters this year, proving correct a series<\/a> of polls<\/a> that portended this trend. It is giving the beleaguered party new optimism about their chances of taking back the House in next year’s midterms, as many of the districts up for grabs have substantial Latino populations.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere was a lot of conversation heading out of the last election about a monolithic realignment, and I think it missed the fact that Trump is a unique beast who was able to persuade Latinos that he has their interests at heart,\u201d said Tory Gavito, president of progressive donor network Way to Win. \u201cIn the last 11 months, he’s done everything but think about Latinos\u2019 interests.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Democrat<\/p>\n

Democrats\u2019 success with Latinos during this off-cycle election may not necessarily translate to races across the country in 2026, when the minority party will fight to retake control of Congress. And Latino voters in Florida and South Texas are likely to vote differently from those in New Jersey or California.<\/p>\n

Further muddling the midterm picture is the Trump question. The president successfully turned out low-propensity Latino voters, some of whom may be more likely to participate in a midterm race than an odd-year election, especially if Trump decides to play a role in next year\u2019s showdown.<\/p>\n

So Republicans, who have made a big bet on majority-Latino districts<\/a> in order to keep their majority next year, have some cause for hope amid an otherwise brutal Election Day for them. While GOP candidates underperformed Trump with Latinos last week, they still put up better numbers than the Republicans of a decade ago (in New Jersey in 2017 for example, Republicans won just 17 percent of the Latino vote, compared to roughly a third this time). And Tuesday\u2019s elections also gave the GOP a new foil<\/a> in New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, whom they think can further tarnish Democrats\u2019 standing with Latino voters across the country who oppose socialism. (Mamdani won 58 percent of the vote in election districts where Latinos made up the largest share of the population, according to data compiled by The City<\/a>.)<\/p>\n

The day after the election, the National Republican Congressional Committee launched Spanish-language ads in 11 swingy congressional districts decrying the \u201csocialist\u201d soon-to-be New York City mayor as \u201cthe future that Democrats want\u201d and warning voters their city could be next.<\/p>\n

\u201cDemocrats have ignored Hispanic communities over the past nine years while millions of working families rejected their radical, socialist agenda,\u201d Christian Martinez, the NRCC\u2019s national Hispanic press secretary, said in a statement. \u201cRepublicans will continue to earn the support of Hispanic voters because we are working to deliver opportunity, security, and a better life.\u201d<\/p>\n

Democrats largely credited their messaging on affordability and blaming Trump for not following through on his economic campaign promises for their rebound with Latino voters.<\/p>\n

\u201cLatinos are rejecting Republicans\u2019 broken promises of lower costs and a strong economy,\u201d Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Bridget Gonzalez said in a statement last week. \u201cGroceries, utilities, and health care are unaffordable and that\u2019s why Latinos will help Democrats take back control of the House next November.\u201d<\/p>\n

In California, the Prop 50 campaign to bolster Gov. Gavin Newsom\u2019s redistricting push leaned heavily on immigration in its messaging, using imagery of ICE and Border Patrol raids to argue Trump\u2019s power must be checked. The campaign\u2019s Spanish-language ads focused predominantly on the immigration crackdown, with cursory mention of Trump\u2019s tariffs.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Latino revolt was economic and personal \u2014 Trump hit their wallets with tariffs and our communities with raids,\u201d said Juan Rodriguez, a senior strategist for Newsom. \u201cFrom California to races across the country, the message for 2026 couldn\u2019t be clearer.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"California<\/p>\n

A lot could change with the state of the economy that could either bolster or weaken their message. And some are cautioning Democrats not to get too comfortable with last week’s results \u2014 and not to rely strictly on affordability messaging.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis doesn’t mean that Democrats have it in the bag,\u201d said Vanessa C\u00e1rdenas, executive director of America\u2019s Voice, an immigration reform group, who added that she hopes to see Democrats message more on immigration in addition to the economy during the midterms. \u201cWe\u2019ve seen it before \u2014 there’s a lot of distrust of Democrats on immigration issues because of promises that have been made.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThey have a lot to vote against,\u201d she continued. \u201cThe challenge for Democrats is giving them something to vote for.\u201d<\/p>\n

In New Jersey, Sherrill\u2019s victory looms large over the state\u2019s 9th congressional district, a plurality-Latino seat that encompasses parts of Bergen and Passaic counties. Sherrill won both by double digits, a major swing after Trump flipped Passaic and lost Bergen by just 3 points in 2024. Republicans are targeting the district\u2019s first-term representative, Democrat Nellie Pou, largely because Trump won the seat in 2024.<\/p>\n

But ticket-splitting in the district\u2019s further down-ballot races may demonstrate that Democrats\u2019 work isn\u2019t done there. In Hawthorne, a borough where Latinos make up around one-quarter of the population, preliminary results show Sherrill won but incumbent Republicans prevailed in mayoral and council races.<\/p>\n

Carlos Cruz, a Republican strategist who worked on a super PAC backing Sherrill\u2019s opponent, Jack Ciattarelli, said that last year\u2019s election was a \u201creferendum\u201d on leadership in Washington and the economy, and people cast a ballot this year for the same reasons.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere were people who voted for the president who wanted to see more,\u201d Cruz said. \u201cFor Democrats to overreact and say \u2018Nellie is safe now\u2019 is fundamentally misreading this year’s elections.\u201d<\/p>\n

Morghan Cyr, Pou\u2019s campaign manager, said that the results \u201csolidified one thing for Democrats above all: Latino communities are key to success across the board.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cEarly, intentional investment in and engagement with these communities is essential to Democrats taking back the House in 2026,\u201d Cyr said in a statement last week. \u201cThe progress that was made this week is good, but we have to keep building on it.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Latino voters, who swung toward President Donald Trump in 2024, boomeranged back to Democrats last…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":120869,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-120867","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nTrump nearly won Latino voters last year. 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