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The visual of President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio watching Venezuelan oil arrive in Texas on Tuesday underscores a Trump priority: Since removing a brutal dictator from Venezuela in January, the administration has run that country as a vassal state, prizing economic recovery and stability. But a wrench was thrown into the works on Sunday, when María Corina Machado, the leader of Venezuela’s democratic opposition, returned to her home country. “I am here. With you,” she announced on X — changing the outlook for democracy in a simple post.

The week the United States ousted Nicolás Maduro, I argued on this site that Machado, someone I have known for years, needed to return to Venezuela. As the crowds welcoming her show, her return changes the balance of power and should ignite the movement toward democratic elections, which she has already called for holding next summer.

For the Trump administration, Machado’s return is more than an inconvenience. She is a walking, talking reminder that the question of legitimacy looms over every transaction the administration makes with the remnants of Maduro’s regime — and that Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodríguez, derives her legitimacy solely from the White House.

Machado has done everything possible to curry favor with the Trump administration, including giving the president the Nobel Peace Prize she was awarded last year in recognition of her yearslong efforts to bring democracy to Venezuela. Ultimately, she is a political actor who derives her legitimacy from the Venezuelan people. Trump knows that he cannot exert the same level of control over a democratic Venezuela that he can with Rodríguez, and he appears to have fallen for Rodríguez’s claims that should she leave power, civil unrest will ensue. This week, the U.S. secretary of state told reporters, “You’re not going to street protest your way into a democracy.” Never mind, apparently that’s exactly the approach the Trump administration is encouraging in Cuba (and is the approach that worked from Poland to Ukraine). U.S. officials appear blind to the benefits a genuine democratic transition in Venezuela would offer, as independent institutions could encourage and protect investment with credibility the Maduro-Rodríguez regime simply lacks.

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Machado understands Venezuela’s challenges. Her initial steps upon returning from exile also show how well she understands symbolism. She went to Divina Pastora church in Barquisimeto. The wider region, Lara state, was long considered a Chavista stronghold; starting there, rather than in an opposition area, signaled her intention to represent all Venezuelans. She attended Mass, giving thanks for her safe return, and took the route the divine shepherd follows every January, symbolizing that she is leading her flock. Venezuelans pray to the shepherdess for delivery from epidemics; the message not lost on Venezuelans is that the disease today is Chavismo.

Videos of crowds accompanying the Machado caravan’s eight-hour road trip to Caracas also underscore something Trump has misunderstood: She has the support of the Venezuelan people, and they are ready for change. Many want liberation from the mafia state Rodríguez represents with the support of the U.S. government.

Rodríguez has been critical of Machado’s call for sanctions, but as of this writing, neither she nor Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello — who runs the repressive apparatus of the regime — have spoken out directly against Machado since her return. Cabello had previously threatened a “surprise” if and when Machado returned from exile, but he appears to have been effectively neutered by the U.S. government.

The big issues remain elections and economic recovery. Fixing Venezuela’s institutions after years of neglect and corruption by the state is critical for economic growth. Without an independent judiciary to secure contracts and ensure legal recourse, as well as other fundamental independent institutions, the decades-long investments Venezuela needs to stand up its economy simply will not materialize. Despite Trump’s entreaties to oil corporations, many potential investors are hanging back, unsure whether deals struck with the illegitimate decades-long regime would be recognized by a new democratic government in Caracas. While Machado has called for all legal contracts to be respected, she has criticized businessman Alejandro Betancourt López as corrupt and questioned the deal the U.S. struck this summer with his group, North American Blue Energy Partners. That means an agreement both Trump and Rodríguez have called a historic opportunity might not outlive either of their administrations.

Machado can be expected to urge the political opposition toward holding elections sooner rather than later. The team negotiating with the regime over the contours of a new Supreme Court, National Electoral Council and, eventually, elections — led by Dinorah Figuera of the 2015 National Assembly — will have to consider her views now that she is again a political force in the country.

So far, negotiations over elections have produced some marginal results but are moving at the glacial pace preferred by Rodríguez’s interim government. Machado’s return should jump-start the process leading to national reconciliation, rebuilding institutions and, ultimately, the democratic transition the majority of Venezuelans seek. The simple truth the Trump administration ought to focus on: A stable, democratic Venezuela that represents the aspirations of all its people will make a much better economic partner than one acting through coercion.

The post What Trump misunderstands about Machado — and Venezuela’s future appeared first on MS NOW.

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